Why the hell not? The Auburn hope vs. LSU
October 26, 2019
Pablo Escobarner
Todd Van Emst/Auburn Athletics
LSU enters this game as hot as anyone in the country. They’ve won on the road against Texas and they’ve won a huge home game against Florida. Pregame hype to face the Auburn Tigers will be nothing new to them. LSU is a double-digit favorite. #2 in the country. Expecting to handle Auburn. Allow me to give a subtle nod to the legendary Lee Corso – “notttttt so fast, my friend!”
This has been a difficult week for me to try and decipher what the result of this game will be. I’ve looked over traditional stats, obscure stats, efficiency rankings, etc. and there’s obviously two ways to go about this. 1) Objective stats tell us what will happen or 2) Bias and skewing MAY be at play. The deeper I dive into it the more I’m talking myself into Auburn being able to actually win this damn game. Now I do understand part of this is somewhat natural because I have my own bias of what I want to happen. But hear me out.
LSU’s offense has been nothing short of extraordinary this season, especially relative to what we’re used to seeing from the purple and gold Tigers. Burrow has been ridiculously accurate (leads the nation in completion percentage), the LSU WRs are dangerous as ever, and they’re throwing up points in bunches. This was evident at the beginning of the season and it was seared on my brain the first week in September.
Having said all that, as cliché as it may be, they just haven’t faced a defense as good as Auburn (5th in the nation in defensive efficiency). This is where the skewing of stats comes into play. The big win against Texas and the offensive showing may be a little fool’s gold. Texas has an atrocious defense (79th in points per game allowed). Even against Mississippi State, LSU looked more like a great team as opposed to an unbeatable one. There are vulnerabilities that can be exposed and situations to capitalize on. Like stopping drives early.
Keys To The Game – Offense
Auburn has to run the ball to sustain drives. Boobee Whitlow is apparently going to be active so that may help, particularly in the 2nd half when he usually makes his hay. But I expect to see more of a RB by committee approach early in this game. Change of pace helps to keep aggressive defenses on their heels as much as possible.
Bo will need to keep the read option occasionally and I also expect to see more Gatewood. Especially in short yardage situations if Gus learned anything from the Florida game I hope it’s that. Take pressure off of Nix, allow Gatewood at opportunity to move the chains on 3rd/4th and short, grind out drives, and live on to score points.
Auburn has to hit the home run plays. Clearly this means Anthony Schwartz has to touch the ball as much as feasibly possible. He’s the fastest man in football – use his blazing ass. Seth Williams downfield in one-on-one opportunities needs to be taken advantage of regularly. Bo actually took advantage of this pretty well against Florida.
Williams and Schwartz need to share the field on more plays as well. I think they will today and the end result of that will be more noticeable. Get Shivers some damn carries already heading downhill. He struggles on sweeps to get upfield and keep his balance. Let’s use our weapons while doing what they’re best at.
Keys To The Game – Defense
Burrow loves to get the ball out quick. They’ve feasted on crossing routes in man coverage and picking apart zones with unpredictable concepts and route combinations. Auburn’s secondary has to provide pressure on the LSU WRs immediately after the snap so Burrow has to hold onto the ball longer than he’s used to. We simply can’t afford to leave the middle of the field exposed, show man coverage, and expect our LBs to cover All-American caliber WRs all game. That’s what give up the big plays we’ve become so accustomed to seeing Auburn give up.
If Auburn can force Burrow to hold onto the ball and make on-the-fly decisions facing pressure, then Derrick Brown and Marlon Davidson can be game changers. LSU’s offense is built to negate a great defensive line. Auburn’s secondary has to step up big in this one or it could possibly get ugly. I think it’s possible.
So after much deliberation and internal turmoil between my head and my heart, I truly think Auburn can win this game. Playing in Death Valley will be no easy feat. We, as fans, have gotten used to losing there in painful ways. Fortunately, when you have a young team, that means nothing to the players. This is their opportunity to prove themselves. This is their opportunity to answer the call. Do you want to be a team that everyone expects to cave or do you want to break a painful streak Auburn has endured for far too long?
Prediction: Auburn 34 – LSU 31
These kids don’t give a damn about the past. They’re making a legacy and name for themselves today. Auburn pulls off one of the greatest road upsets in program history today. Grinding the clock, extending drives, slowing down an offensive juggernaut, and keeping their season alive. I still believe in this team. WHY THE HELL NOT?! Folks I’m there.
War Damn Eagle from yours truly,
Pablo Escobarner
