Pablo EscoBarner’s Fearless Forecast: Go to hell, cowbell
September 28, 2019
Pablo Escobarner
Photo credit: Auburn Athletics
On the heels of a huge conference road win (Texas A&M), and sandwiched between another huge conference road game (Florida), Auburn will welcome a familiar foe in Mississippi State. And all them damn cowbells. I’ve read/heard a lot of folks referring to this as a trap game. Typically, that might be the case. But due to the circumstances, I don’t believe it is. Let’s ride.
Why Mississippi State Isn’t a Trap Game
This is an Auburn team hungry to play in front of their home crowd for a big game. They’ve yet to do so by hosting Tulane and Kent State. This is a top 10 team craving the rush of 87,451 fans screaming around them. The pageantry and hype of playing an ESPN night game under the lights of Jordan-Hare Stadium. They’ve exerted their dominance at home against two far inferior opponents but the previous gameday atmospheres will pale in comparison.
A trap game occurs when a team comes off an emotional high overlooking their current opponent and looking forward to the next. But due to the timing in the season and circumstance (hello, 2018 game) the boys in orange and blue will be juiced the hell up for this one. This is revenge for a game full of mishaps and referee judgments. This is revenge for a game that derailed a season. Auburn isn’t overlooking this game. Bet your sweet ass it’s been circled on the calendar for a year.
Keys To Victory
As always, Auburn needs to establish the run game. It drives everything. It opens things up. It provides the opportunity for wrinkle plays like reverses, screens, and play-action deep throws. Speaking of deep throws, Bo Nix absolutely has to start hitting these. If he can start consistently hitting two or three bombs per game, it’ll take this team to a whole different level of good. It makes Auburn beat-anybody-any-given-Saturday good.
Bo is making the right reads, it’s rarely a bad throw in terms of coverage, but a matter of putting too much gas on it and overthrowing his elite-speed deep threats. I truly think he’ll compensate for that shot of adrenaline as the year progresses. Let’s hope it’s this game.
Not to mention, last week against A&M, Bo finally had his top three wide receivers — Seth Williams, Will Hastings and Anthony Schwartz — all back on the field, healthy and unabated for the first time this season, so the timing on routes will only improve moving forward.
I’m assuming Miss St QB Tyler Stevens won’t be playing in this game. That leaves us with an athletic true freshman dual-threat QB to contain in Garrett Shrader. He’s a 6’4” 200 lb bonafide runner. Stevens is by far the more refined passer of the two. Advantage Auburn. This week our LB corps will really get to show off their sideline-to-sideline speed by chasing Shrader and electric RB Kylin Hill all over the field. Daniel Thomas and Jeremiah Dinson live for these type of matchups as well. Expect a crowded box and the safeties regularly creeping up toward the line of scrimmage in run support. This will put our CBs on an island and make Auburn susceptible to big plays downfield. Guys, please – for the love of all things holy – get your damn heads around and find the ball in man coverage.
Simply put, Mississippi State wants to run the ball. You know what I think Mississippi State won’t be able to do well? Run the ball. Thanks for asking. My research team (me) looked into some stats. Mississippi State is averaging 228 rushing yard per game. They have faced the #59, #101, #102, and #103 ranked run defenses in terms of yards per attempt. Excuse my unimpressed face.
Prediction: Auburn 38 – Miss St 17
Auburn comes out hyped as hell. Defense blows up plays. Offense is firing on all cylinders. The crowd is raucous. And the rout is on. Auburn impressively performs in an underrated statement game to let the nation know this isn’t a fluke top 10 team. This is a team getting stronger and stronger every single week.
And the only trap involved in this game is Mississippi State thinking they’re being overlooked. While there will be thousands of cowbells in Auburn this weekend, the only bell ringing after this game will be due to a knockout.
War Damn Eagle from yours truly,
Pablo Escobarner
